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The Daily OrangeObama, Clinton tie in Syracuse precincts on Super Tuesday
By Julia Terruso
Posted: 2/13/08, 4:00 AM EST Section: News
Terri-Ann Malgieri voted for the first time Feb. 5, and it was a vote that really counted. If she had stayed home, Barack Obama D-IL could have beaten Hilary Clinton D-N.Y. by one vote.
That's how close the Democratic primary was in the city of Syracuse. Obama and Clinton tied; both receiving 6,001 votes according to county election officials.
Malgieri, a freshman communication and rhetorical studies major, said she almost didn't vote in the primary.
"Because of scheduling conflicts I didn't think I would be able to vote, but at the last minute my friend drove me to the polls," she said. "It's really astonishing to realize that my vote could have been the one that tied it."
The likelihood of something like this happening is "almost impossible if the margin between the two candidates is not as tight as observed in Syracuse," said Hyune-Ju Kim, a Syracuse math professor.
With a sample of 12,346 voters, like the one observed in Syracuse this year, Kim estimated a 0.36 percent chance of a tie between Clinton and Obama, as based on the multinomial probability model.
While statistically Obama and Clinton tied on last Tuesday, the numbers are not verifiable until absentee ballots are tallied later this week, said Ed Ryan Onondaga County Election Board Commissioner.
"I think it's symptomatic of what's going on throughout the entire country," Ryan said. "We have two very qualified candidates. Both have a significant base that they're appealing to, and I think it's going to be very close throughout the whole process for who will wind up on top."
Ryan said he saw an increase in college-aged voters on Super Tuesday, a change from past elections.
"I think apathy has been at the root of it, and I believe now that a lot of them are starting to get concerned about government and who they're putting in office to do what," he said.
Syracuse falls within the 25th Congressional District, which Clinton won with 30,359 votes to Obama's 17,642, according to the ABC News Web site. Clinton won New York state on Super Tuesday with 57 percent of the votes.
That's how close the Democratic primary was in the city of Syracuse. Obama and Clinton tied; both receiving 6,001 votes according to county election officials.
Malgieri, a freshman communication and rhetorical studies major, said she almost didn't vote in the primary.
"Because of scheduling conflicts I didn't think I would be able to vote, but at the last minute my friend drove me to the polls," she said. "It's really astonishing to realize that my vote could have been the one that tied it."
The likelihood of something like this happening is "almost impossible if the margin between the two candidates is not as tight as observed in Syracuse," said Hyune-Ju Kim, a Syracuse math professor.
With a sample of 12,346 voters, like the one observed in Syracuse this year, Kim estimated a 0.36 percent chance of a tie between Clinton and Obama, as based on the multinomial probability model.
While statistically Obama and Clinton tied on last Tuesday, the numbers are not verifiable until absentee ballots are tallied later this week, said Ed Ryan Onondaga County Election Board Commissioner.
"I think it's symptomatic of what's going on throughout the entire country," Ryan said. "We have two very qualified candidates. Both have a significant base that they're appealing to, and I think it's going to be very close throughout the whole process for who will wind up on top."
Ryan said he saw an increase in college-aged voters on Super Tuesday, a change from past elections.
"I think apathy has been at the root of it, and I believe now that a lot of them are starting to get concerned about government and who they're putting in office to do what," he said.
Syracuse falls within the 25th Congressional District, which Clinton won with 30,359 votes to Obama's 17,642, according to the ABC News Web site. Clinton won New York state on Super Tuesday with 57 percent of the votes.
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